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After 50 years, Cuba has little to show

Posted on Friday, 12.12.08
THE OPPENHEIMER REPORT
After 50 years, Cuba has little to show
By ANDRES OPPENHEIMER
aoppenheimer@MiamiHerald.com

Fifty years after took power in Cuba, the big question
about the Cuban revolution is not whether it was justified, but whether
it was worth it. From all available evidence, it wasn't.

A dispassionate look into Cuba today shows that, while the country has
reduced the pockets of extreme misery that existed during the Fulgencio
Batista dictatorship, a majority of Cubans are poorer and have fewer
opportunities to improve their lives than they did five decades ago.

Cubans today have a pretty low per capita income compared with other
Latin American nations. They have fewer television sets, telephones,
computers and cars relative to their population than most Latin American
countries, and the lowest percentage of people with access to the
Internet in the region, even below Haiti.

And while Cuba does well in literacy and infant mortality indicators, it
does lousy in others. Cuba has one of the highest suicide rates in the
Americas.

BY THE NUMBERS

Before we get into my own impressions from when I was a frequent visitor
to the island in the early 1990s, let's look at the facts.

On the plus side, Cuba has a 99.8 percent adult literacy rate, one
percent higher than Trinidad and Tobago's, and an infant mortality rate
of six per 1,000 people, slightly lower than 's, according to the
United Nations' 2008 Human Development Report. That makes it the country
with the best adult literacy and infant mortality rates in the region.

But according to the U.N. 1957 Statistical Yearbook, Cuba already ranked
among the four most advanced Latin American countries in literacy and
caloric consumption rates that year, and had the lowest infant mortality
in the region. In other words, Cuba has gone up three places in the
literacy ranking, while retaining its status as the nation with the
region's lowest infant mortality rates.

When it comes to personal income or standard of living statistics, the
U.N. Human Development Report — the Cuban government's favorite
statistical source — lists the island's per capita income at $6,000 a
year, although the figure is accompanied by an asterisk indicating that
it's a Cuban government estimate, and that “efforts to produce a more
accurate estimate are ongoing.''

In fact, Cuba refuses to calculate its per capita income according to
international standards. The same thing happens with its poverty rates.
Cuba agrees to use world-accepted statistical methods in those areas
where it does well, such as heath and education, but refuses to do so in
those areas where it may not do that well. The U.N. report's world
poverty rates table leaves Cuba's line blank.

''Neither the United Nations nor any other international institution
have the foggiest idea what Cuba's per capita income or poverty rates
really are because Fidel ordered that the country use its own
methodology,'' said Carmelo Mesa-Lago, a retired of
Pittsburgh economics professor who has long been one of the most serious
analysts of the Cuban economy.

''The Cuban government's figures are not credible, which forces
everybody else to use them with an asterisk or not to use them at all,''
he added.

What is known is that Cubans' average wage is nearly $20 a month, as
recognized by the official media, which would translate to an average
income of $240 a year.

Even if one accepted the Cuban regime's dubious $6,000-a-year-per-capita
income figure — it takes into account the government's , and
education subsidies — Cuba ranks No. 21 in Latin America, way behind
countries such as Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, the Dominican Republic,
Suriname and Belize, according to the U.N. report.

Other international institutions publish figures that provide an even
more somber picture of today's Cuba.

While the island in 1959 had Latin America's highest number of
television sets per household, today only 70 percent of Cuban households
have television sets, compared with 97 percent in Argentina, 93 percent
in Mexico, 83 percent in El Salvador and 76 percent in the Dominican
Republic, according to the World Bank's 2008 World Development Indicators.

When it comes to telephones, only 9 percent of Cubans have access to a
fixed telephone line, and only 1 percent of the population subscribes to
a mobile phone service, the World Bank figures show. That's one of Latin
America's lowest telephone access rates, way behind Honduras.

What's worse, only 2 percent of Cubans have access to the Internet. By
comparison, 27 percent of Costa Ricans, 10 percent of Guatemalans and 7
percent of Haitians have access to the Internet, according to the World
Bank figures.

The Cuban government blames its economic shortcomings on the U.S. trade
embargo. But while some of us consider the U.S. embargo a pretty
senseless policy, it has so many loopholes that it can hardly be faulted
for Cuba's low standard of living. The United States is already the
leading exporter of food products to the island, and many other U.S.
goods enter Cuba through third countries.

A DEARTH OF HOPE

Life in Cuba is grim, judging from what I saw on the island and what
recent arrivals tell me.

The island is like a huge kindergarten, where you are guaranteed a
subsistence-level income, but the government decides what you will
study, where you will work, what you can buy, what you are allowed to
read, what you can watch on television, and whether you can travel
abroad. It's a safe place to live if you are lazy, or inept, but a
pretty exasperating place if you are ambitious or have a mind of your own.

I remember an interview I did in with Che Guevara's grandson,
Canek Sánchez Guevara, in 1991, when the latter was a heavy metal rock
musician in his late teens. Canek, who later emigrated to Mexico, was —
like many Cubans of his age — very critical of the Cuban revolution.

''This revolution is in ruins,'' he told me. “There is no food, there's
no freedom. People say it's all because of the Yanqui aggression, but
that's a myth, as real as dragons and witches, a children's tale.''

There was nothing for young people to do in Cuba, Canek told me. He was
studying graphic design at an arts high school but considered it a waste
of time.

''There's no paper, no pens and no interest on the part of the teachers
to do anything,'' he said. “And if you graduate, there is no work in
your field. They'll ask you to go to the countryside and work in
agriculture. This place is hopeless.''

When I asked him what Che Guevara would think of him if he were alive,
the Cuban hero's grandson said that “he would be proud of me. Che
Guevara was a rebel. He never would have approved of what has become of
this revolution.''

And things haven't changed much in recent years. Not surprisingly, every
reporter who travels to Cuba comes back with the same impression: It's a
country suspended in time, waiting — so far in vain — for something to
change.

The part of Che Guevara's family that I met in Cuba is typical of
today's generational divide on the island. Older Cubans tend to support
the revolution — they have invested their lives in it — while
middle-aged Cubans tend to be moderately critical of it, and most of the
younger ones are against it. As one youngst
er told me in Havana, “this
revolution has become an institution.''

Cuba's state of hopelessness may be one of the factors leading to the
island's high suicide rate of 24.8 per 100,000 people. Cuba had Latin
America's highest suicide rate earlier this decade, and this year ranked
fourth in the region, behind Guyana, Uruguay and Trinidad and Tobago,
according to World Health Organization figures.

CURRENT SENTIMENT

Cuban officials admit that many Cubans complain about shortages and a
lack of opportunities, but they claim that most Cubans support the
revolution. I doubt that. What leads me to conclude that most Cubans
would like a political opening and to enjoy basic freedoms?

First, because I heard many of them say so — many of them with fear of
being overheard — when I was a frequent traveler to the island in the
late '80s and early '90s. Second, because a surreptitious poll conducted
in Cuba earlier this year by the International Republican Institute
shows that nearly 70 percent of people aged 19 to 49 said they would
like a democratic system with multiparty elections, freedom of speech
and freedom of .

Third, and most importantly, because the Cuban government has a
well-oiled polling machinery. If the Castro regime thought it could win
a free election, and that Cubans were so proud of the revolution's
achievements, it would have allowed a free election long ago. If it
hasn't done so, it's because it knows it would lose it.

So was it worth it to marginally improve some social indicators at the
cost of lowering the island's overall standard of living?

Definitely not.

Other countries, such as Chile and Costa Rica, have reduced poverty to a
minimum with much less social trauma.

In Cuba, nearly 1.5 million people were forced into exile, hundreds of
thousands of children have been separated from their parents, thousands
— tens of thousands, by some accounts — have died at sea while trying
to leave the island, and millions in Cuba have been forced to do
''voluntary work'' cutting cane in the fields or doing other
chores as part of their revolutionary duties.

And that's without taking into account victims of political violence. A
total of 2,077 Cubans died in Cuba's ''internationalist'' wars in
Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia and other African countries, according to
official figures cited by author Norberto Fuentes in his Autobiography
of Fidel Castro.

In addition, the New Jersey-based Cuban Archive says it has documented
8,273 executions, extra-judicial killings and disappearances on the
island since 1959. ''We have the names and sources for all these
killings, and they are available on the Web,'' said Maria Werlau, the
Archive's director.

The cost Cubans are paying in lost freedoms is enormous. There are more
than 200 political prisoners, including 29 journalists arrested in 2003,
according to groups. Adolfo Fernández Sainz, one of the 29
journalists, is serving 15 years in for ''subverting the nation's
internal order.'' At his trial, the government presented ''evidence'' of
his crime confiscated at his apartment: an electric typewriter and
prohibited books, including George Orwell's 1984.

My conclusion: The Cuban dictatorship has improved some social
indicators, but other Latin American countries have done better in
others without sacrificing basic freedoms, and with much less suffering.
For Cubans, the revolution may have been justified, but it wasn't worth it.

http://www.miamiherald.com/540/story/810847.html

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